Question: What was your reasoning behind using the aggregate demand forecast when determining the size of your order rather than the individual school forecasts? Should you rethink this or is there a sound basis for doing it this way?

The aggregate forecast must be more precise than the projection of each individual. To demonstrate this, calculate the coefficient of determination (CV) in the single projections as well as contrast it to the collective prediction (the CV for the individual forecasts is between 10 percent and 14 percent, and the CV for the aggregate forecast is less than 6 percent).

A fundamental assumption here is that the projections at each institution are independent and unbiased. Forecasts are continually susceptible to change and therefore are frequently inaccurate. To reduce forecasting errors,aggregate demand prediction of several sweaters will be employed. The accuracy of the estimate will be affected if you try and figure out the need for every single school.

An aggregate demand estimate would be more reliable than estimating demand for each particular school. This is because, as a consequence of outliers being canceled out, the variation of aggregated prediction is significantly less than the variation of a single prediction.

A decrease in variability as a result of consumer spending leads toward the optimum value being ordered, which is the purpose.

If this is the case, then the mistakes will tend to repel each other out. If there is significant bias in the predictions (for instance, they are all high or too low), we have an issue and it may be preferable to utilize the single predictions. In this study, we believe that the projections are independent as well as unaffected by prejudice, and we also compute the rankings per particular school.