(a) Write the binomial distribution formula for the probability that 3 comes up exactly 125 times in 720 tosses of a die. (b) Using the normal approximation and tables or calculator, find the approximate answer to (a). (c) Using the normal approximation, find the approximate probability that 3 comes up between 115 and 130 times.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Part (a): Binomial formula: \( P(X = 125) = \binom{720}{125} \left( \frac{1}{6} \right)^{125} \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^{595} \).Using normal approximation: \( P(X = 125) \approx 0.0192 \).Part (c): Approximate probability between 115 and 130 times is 0.5573.

Step by step solution

01

- Understanding Binomial Distribution

A binomial distribution is used to model the number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials, each with the same probability of success. For this problem, each toss of the die is a trial, and rolling a 3 is considered a success.
02

- Binomial Distribution Formula

The binomial distribution formula is given by: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] where - \( n \) is the number of trials (720 tosses)- \( k \) is the number of successes (125 occurrences of 3)- \( p \) is the probability of success on a single trial (rolling a 3, which is \( \frac{1}{6} \))Applying the values into the formula, we get:\[ P(X = 125) = \binom{720}{125} \left( \frac{1}{6} \right)^{125} \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^{595} \]
03

- Normal Approximation Setup

Since the number of trials is large, we can use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution. The mean \( \mu \) and standard deviation \( \sigma \) for the binomial distribution are given by:\[ \mu = np \]\[ \sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} \] where - \( n = 720 \)- \( p = \frac{1}{6} \) \[ \mu = 720 \times \frac{1}{6} = 120 \]\[ \sigma = \sqrt{720 \times \frac{1}{6} \times \left(1 - \frac{1}{6}\right)} \approx 9.46 \]
04

- Normal Approximation for (a)

Using the normal approximation, the probability \( P(X = 125) \) converts to a normal distribution problem: \[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]For \( X = 125 \): \[ Z = \frac{125 - 120}{9.46} \approx 0.53 \] Using the Z-table or calculator, we find the probability corresponding to \( Z = 0.53 \).\[ P(Z < 0.53) \approx 0.7019 \] Hence, to find \( P(X = 125) \), find the area under the normal curve between 124.5 and 125.5 using continuity correction:\[ Z = \frac{124.5 - 120}{9.46} \approx 0.48 \] and \[ Z = \frac{125.5 - 120}{9.46} \approx 0.58 \]\[ P(0.48 < Z < 0.58) \approx 0.0192 \]
05

- Normal Approximation for (c)

For the interval [115, 130], convert to Z-scores:\[ Z = \frac{115 - 120}{9.46} \approx -0.53 \]\[ Z = \frac{130 - 120}{9.46} \approx 1.06 \]Find the probability corresponding to these Z-scores from the Z-table or calculator:\[ P(-0.53 < Z < 1.06) \approx P(Z < 1.06) - P(Z < -0.53) \]\[ \approx 0.8554 - 0.2981 = 0.5573 \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Approximation
The normal approximation is a useful technique when dealing with binomial distributions, especially for large sample sizes. Instead of working directly with the binomial probabilities, the problem is converted to a normal distribution, which is easier to handle.

To use normal approximation, you need to calculate the mean (μ) and the standard deviation (σ) of the binomial distribution. The mean is found using the formula: \(\text{mean } (\text{μ}) = n \times p\), where:
  • \(n\): The number of trials
  • \(p\): The probability of success in each trial
For the exercise given, \( n = 720 \) and \( p = \frac{1}{6} \), so the mean (μ) is calculated as \(\text{μ} = 720 \times \frac{1}{6} \).

Next, calculate the standard deviation using the formula: \( \text{σ} = \big\backslash\big\backslashsqrt{n \times p \times (1-p)} \), where the same \( n \) and \( p \) values are used. This way, you end up with a normal distribution that has the calculated mean and standard deviation.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation in the context of normal approximation involves finding the area under the normal curve for given intervals. This process often utilizes the Z-score, which transforms a given value into the number of standard deviations it is away from the mean.

To find the probability for a specific range, you first convert the endpoints of that range into Z-scores using the formula: \(\text{Z} = \frac{(X - \text{μ})}{\text{σ}} \), where:
  • \(X\): The value from the binomial distribution
  • \(\text{μ}\): The calculated mean
  • \(\text{σ}\): The calculated standard deviation
For example, to calculate the probability that rolling a 3 appears between 115 and 130 times in 720 tosses, first convert 115 and 130 into Z-scores. Then, find the corresponding probabilities using Z-tables or calculators. This results in approximating the original binomial distribution probability.
Z-Score
A Z-score represents the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean. It is pivotal in converting binomial distribution problems into the normal distribution format, making calculations simpler.

The Z-score is computed by the formula: \(\text{Z} = \frac{(X - \text{μ})}{\text{σ}} \), where:
  • \(X\): The specific value you're evaluating
  • \(\text{μ}\): The mean of the distribution
  • \(\text{σ}\): The standard deviation of the distribution
For instance, converting the value 125 into a Z-score, given a mean (μ) of 120 and a standard deviation (σ) of approximately 9.46, results in: \(\text{Z} = \frac{(125 - 120)}{9.46} \). Once you have the Z-score, you can use Z-tables to find probabilities related to that score. This helps in determining the probability range for specific values and is crucial for tasks such as calculating the normal approximation of binomial distributions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Would you pay \(\$ 10\) per throw of two dice if you were to reccive a number of dollars equal to the product of the numbers on the dice? Himt: What is your expectation? If it is more than \(\$ 10\), then the game would be favorable for you.

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Suppose 520 people each have a shuffled deck of cards and draw one card from the deck. What is the probability that exactly 13 of the 520 cards will be aces of spades? Write the binomial formula and approximate it. Which is best, the normal or the Poisson approximation?

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