Let \(x=\) number of heads in one toss of a coin. What are the possible values of \(x\) and their probabilities? What is \(\left.\mu_{x} ? \text { Hence show that } \operatorname{Var}(x)=\text { [average of }\left(x-\mu_{x}\right)^{2}\right]\) \(=\frac{1}{4},\) so the standard deviation is \(\frac{1}{2} .\) Now use the result from Problem 6.15 "variance of a sum of independent random variables \(=\) sum of their variances" to show that if \(x=\) number of heads in \(n\) tosses of a coin, \(\operatorname{Var}(x)=\frac{1}{4} n\) and the standard deviation \(\sigma_{x}=\frac{1}{2} \sqrt{n}\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
For one toss: \(x = 0\) or \(1\) with \(P(x = 0) = \frac{1}{2}\) and \(P(x = 1) = \frac{1}{2}\). \(\mu_x = \frac{1}{2}\), \(\operatorname{Var}(x) = \frac{1}{4}\), \(\sigma_x = \frac{1}{2}\). For \(n\) tosses: \(\operatorname{Var}(x) = \frac{1}{4}n\), \(\sigma_x = \frac{1}{2}\sqrt{n}\).

Step by step solution

01

Identify Possible Values of x

For one toss of a coin, the number of heads, denoted as \(x\), can be 0 or 1. These are the possible values: 0 (if the coin shows tails) and 1 (if the coin shows heads).
02

Calculate Probabilities of Each Value

Since a fair coin has an equal chance of landing on heads or tails, the probability of \(x = 0\) is \(P(x = 0) = \frac{1}{2}\) and the probability of \(x = 1\) is \(P(x = 1) = \frac{1}{2}\).
03

Calculate the Expected Value (Mean)

The expected value, denoted \(\mu_x\), is calculated as follows: \[ \mu_x = E(x) = x_1 P(x = x_1) + x_2 P(x = x_2) = 0 \cdot \frac{1}{2} + 1 \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{2} \]
04

Calculate the Variance

Variance is the average of the squared differences from the mean: \[ \operatorname{Var}(x) = E((x - \mu_x)^2) \]Now, compute each part using \(x = 0\) and \(x = 1\): \[ \operatorname{Var}(x) = (0-\frac{1}{2})^2 \cdot \frac{1}{2} + (1-\frac{1}{2})^2 \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{8} + \frac{1}{8} = \frac{1}{4} \]
05

Calculate the Standard Deviation

The standard deviation \(\sigma_x\) is the square root of the variance: \[ \sigma_x = \sqrt{\operatorname{Var}(x)} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{4}} = \frac{1}{2} \]
06

Generalize for n Tosses of the Coin

Using the result that the variance of a sum of independent random variables is equal to the sum of their variances, for \(n\) tosses: \[ \operatorname{Var}(x) = \frac{1}{4}n \]Then, the standard deviation for \(n\) tosses is: \[ \sigma_x = \sqrt{\operatorname{Var}(x)} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{4}n} = \frac{1}{2} \sqrt{n} \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Expected Value
The expected value, often denoted \(\mu\) or \(E(x)\), represents the long-run average outcome of a random variable after many trials.
The expected value gives you an idea of the center of the distribution for that variable.
In the context of a coin toss where \(x\) is the number of heads, the possible values are 0 for tails and 1 for heads. Since each outcome has a probability of \(\frac{1}{2}\), the expected value is calculated as follows:
\[ \mu_x = E(x) = 0 \cdot \frac{1}{2} + 1 \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{2} \]
This means that, on average, out of many tosses, the number of heads you expect is 0.5 per toss.
Variance
Variance, denoted as \operatorname{Var}(x)\, quantifies the spread or dispersion of a set of values around their mean.
It represents how much the values differ from the expected value.
For our coin toss example, we need to find how values vary from \(\mu_x\):
\[ \operatorname{Var}(x) = E((x - \mu_x)^2) = (0 - \frac{1}{2})^2 \cdot \frac{1}{2} + (1 - \frac{1}{2})^2 \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{8} + \frac{1}{8} = \frac{1}{4} \]
As shown, the variance for one coin toss is \(\frac{1}{4}\). This value tells us that there is a small, uniform spread around the mean value of 0.5.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is the square root of variance and provides a measure of how much values typically deviate from the mean.
It is denoted by \sigma_x\.
In our example, the variance was calculated as \(\frac{1}{4}\), so the standard deviation \(\sigma_x\) is:
\[ \sigma_x = \sqrt{\operatorname{Var}(x)} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{4}} = \frac{1}{2} \]
This tells us that in one coin toss, the number of heads will typically deviate from the mean by 0.5.
Independent Random Variables
Independent random variables are those whose outcomes do not affect each other.
In our case, each toss of a coin is independent of the others.
Whether you get heads or tails on one toss has no influence on the result of the next toss.
When dealing with sums of independent random variables, their variances add up.
For \(n\) tosses of the coin, the general variance would be:
\[ \operatorname{Var}(x) = \frac{1}{4}n \]
Consequently, the standard deviation for \(n\) tosses is:
\[ \sigma_x = \sqrt{\operatorname{Var}(x)} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{4}n} = \frac{1}{2}\sqrt{n} \]
This implies that with more tosses, the standard deviation increases, reflecting higher variability but still under the principle that each event is independent.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

(a) Note that (3.4) assumes \(P(A) \neq 0\) since \(P_{A}(B)\) is meaningless if \(P(A)=0\) Assuming both \(P(A) \neq 0\) and \(P(B) \neq 0,\) show that if (3.4) is true, then \(P(A)=P_{B}(A) ;\) that is if \(B\) is independent of \(A,\) then \(A\) is independent of \(B\) If either \(P(A)\) or \(P(B)\) is zero, then we use (3.5) to define independence. (b) When is an event \(E\) independent of itself? When is \(E\) independent of "not \(E " ?\)

(a) Three typed letters and their envelopes are piled on a desk. If someone puts the letters into the envelopes at random (one letter in each), what is the probability that each letter gets into its own envelope? Call the envelopes \(A, B, C,\) and the corresponding letters \(a, b, c,\) and set up the sample space. Note that " \(a\) in \(C\) \(b\) in \(B, c\) in \(A "\) is one point in the sample space. (b) What is the probability that at least one letter gets into its own envelope? Hint: What is the probability that no letter gets into its own envelope? (c) Let \(A\) mean that \(a\) got into envelope \(A\), and so on. Find the probability \(P(A)\) that \(a\) got into \(A\). Find \(P(B)\) and \(P(C)\). Find the probability \(P(A+B)\) that either \(a\) or \(b\) or both got into their correct envelopes, and the probability \(P(A B)\) that both got into their correct envelopes. Verify equation (3.6)

What is the probability that you and a friend have different birthdays? (For simplicity, let a year have 365 days.) What is the probability that three people have three different birthdays? Show that the probability that \(n\) people have \(n\) different birthdays is $$p=\left(1-\frac{1}{365}\right)\left(1-\frac{2}{365}\right)\left(1-\frac{3}{365}\right) \cdots\left(1-\frac{n-1}{365}\right).$$ Estimate this for \(n \ll 365\) by calculating \(\ln p\) [recall that \(\ln (1+x)\) is approximately \(x\) for \(x \ll 1]\). Find the smallest (integral) \(n\) for which \(p<\frac{1}{2}\). Hence, show that for a group of 23 people or more, the probability is greater than \(\frac{1}{2}\) that two of them have the same birthday. (Try it with a group of friends or a list of people such as the presidents of the United States.)

A so-called 7 -way lamp has three 60 -watt bulbs which may be turned on one or two or all three at a time, and a large bulb which may be turned to 100 watts, 200 watts or 300 watts. How many different light intensities can the lamp be set to give if the completely off position is not included? (The answer is not 7 .)

Set up sample spaces for Problems 1 to 7 and list next to each sample point the value of the indicated random variable \(x,\) and the probability associated with the sample point. Make a table of the different values \(x_{i}\) of \(x\) and the corresponding probabilities \(p_{i}=f\left(x_{i}\right)\) Compute the mean, the variance, and the standard deviation for \(x\). Find and plot the cumulative distribution function \(F(x)\). Suppose that Martian dice are 4-sided (tetrahedra) with points labeled 1 to 4. When a pair of these dice is tossed, let \(x\) be the product of the two numbers at the tops of the dice if the product is odd; otherwise \(x=0\).

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