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Chapter 18: Problem 7

Briefly explain whether you agree with the following argument: The median voter theorem will be an accurate predictor of the outcomes of elections when a majority of voters have preferences very similar to those of the median voter. When the majority of voters have preferences very different from those of the median voter, the median voter theorem will not lead to accurate predictions of the outcomes of elections.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The argument is logical, adhering to the principles of the Median Voter Theorem. The theorem can accurately predict outcomes when the majority's preferences align with the median voter, and may struggle when these preferences significantly diverge.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Median Voter Theorem

Understanding the Median Voter Theorem is crucial in evaluating the scenario laid out in the argument. When a preference set of voters is ordered along a single-dimensional spectrum, the Median Voter Theorem suggests that politicians will approach the preferences of the median voter to maximize votes.
02

Assessing Argument Section 1

Consider the first part of the argument: 'The median voter theorem will be an accurate predictor of the outcomes of elections when a majority of voters have preferences very similar to those of the median voter.' This indeed follows logically from the Median Voter Theorem. If the majority of the voters' preferences align with the median voter's, it follows that a politician who also adopts these positions would receive the majority of the votes.
03

Assessing Argument Section 2

Now consider the second part: 'When the majority of voters have preferences very different from those of the median voter, the median voter theorem will not lead to accurate predictions of the outcomes of elections.' This statement is also logical as the politician looking to secure the most votes will aim to reflect the views of the majority, and if those views do not reflect the median voter's preference, the median voter theorem may not predict the outcome accurately.

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