Would you expect the natural rate of unemployment to remain the same within one country over the long run of several decades?

The natural rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment when the labor market is in equilibrium, meaning that the number of job-seekers is equal to the number of job vacancies. At this rate, there are no cyclical or demand-side factors causing unemployment, only structural and frictional factors.

There are several factors that can affect the natural rate of unemployment: 1. Demographic changes: Changes in the population's age structure, migration patterns, and level of education can affect the labor market. 2. Labor market policies: Changes in labor market policies, such as minimum wage laws, unemployment benefits, and job training programs, can impact the natural rate of unemployment. 3. Technological progress: Advances in technology can create mismatches between the skills of workers and the requirements of available jobs. 4. Structural changes: Shifts in the economy's industrial structure, such as from manufacturing to services, can result in changes to the natural rate of unemployment.

Over the long run of several decades, it is likely that these factors will change, which may cause the natural rate of unemployment to change as well. For example: 1. Demographic changes: An aging population (as is the case in many developed countries) may lead to a higher natural rate of unemployment, as older workers are more likely to be unemployed due to difficulty finding jobs suitable for their skills or experience. 2. Labor market policies: Over several decades, governments may implement new labor market policies, or modify existing ones, which could affect the natural rate of unemployment. 3. Technological progress: Rapid technological progress may increase the skills gap in the labor market, leading to a higher natural rate of unemployment. Conversely, technology could also create new industries and jobs, potentially reducing the natural rate of unemployment. 4. Structural changes: As economies change and evolve over time, some industries may decline while others grow, resulting in shifts in the labor market supply and demand, and therefore changes to the natural rate of unemployment.

Considering the various factors that influence the natural rate of unemployment and how these factors may change over the long run of several decades, it is likely that the natural rate of unemployment will not remain the same within one country over a long time span. Economic, demographic, and technological changes are all factors that can contribute to fluctuations in the natural rate of unemployment.