Chapter 16: Problem 8

A central bank can allow its currency to fall indefinitely, but it cannot allow its currency to rise indefinitely. Why not?

Short Answer

Expert verified

Central banks cannot allow a currency to rise indefinitely because it would have negative consequences for the domestic economy, such as slower economic growth, deflation, and decreased export competitiveness. While central banks have tools to intervene and stop the rise in their currency's value, doing so would require intensive intervention and loss of reserves, making it difficult to maintain a strong currency indefinitely without facing significant economic consequences. On the other hand, allowing a currency to fall indefinitely can have some benefits, and central banks have the ability to manage the risks associated with a weaker currency to maintain economic stability.

Step by step solution

Understand the role of central banks

Central banks, like the Federal Reserve in the United States or the European Central Bank in Europe, are responsible for managing a country's money supply and interest rates. They have several tools at their disposal, such as setting the benchmark interest rate, conducting open market operations, and adjusting reserve requirements for commercial banks. These tools are used to control inflation, maintain financial stability, and promote economic growth.

Recognize that a currency's value can fall due to various reasons

A central bank might allow its currency to fall for several reasons. For example, it can use a weaker currency to stimulate exports, boost the domestic economy, and fight deflation. A weaker currency can make a country's goods and services more attractive to foreign buyers, leading to increased demand and economic growth.

Understand the potential consequences of a currency falling indefinitely

While allowing a currency to fall indefinitely can have some benefits, such as making exports more attractive, it is not without risks. These risks include increased import costs, which can lead to inflation and a lower purchasing power for consumers, as well as increased pressure on domestic industries that rely on imports. However, central banks have the tools and ability to manage these risks and control their currency's value to maintain economic stability.

Recognize that a currency's value can rise for various reasons

A currency's value might rise when there is a strong demand for a country's goods and services, when there is a significant inflow of investments, or when there is a perceived "safe-haven" status during times of global economic uncertainty. High currency values may be attractive to foreign investors as they can earn a higher return on their investments in the country.

Understand the potential consequences of a currency rising indefinitely

When a currency's value rises indefinitely, it can have negative consequences for the domestic economy. Export prices will be more expensive in international markets, leading to decreased demand and slower economic growth. Additionally, a stronger currency can also lead to deflation, which is a general decline in prices. Deflation can negatively impact economic growth, as the prospect of lower prices in the future may encourage consumers and businesses to delay spending and investment.

Explain why central banks cannot allow their currency to rise indefinitely

Central banks cannot allow a currency to rise indefinitely because it would exacerbate the negative effects of a strong currency on the domestic economy, which can lead to slower economic growth, deflation, and diminished export competitiveness. While they could potentially intervene and use their tools to stop the rise in their currency's value, it would require a high degree of intervention, and the subsequent loss of reserves. Therefore, central banks may find it difficult to maintain a strong currency indefinitely without facing significant economic consequences.

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