How can forward guidance as a tool of the central bank impact the policy instrument, intermediate targets, and goals?

Short Answer

Expert verified

Forward guidance assists people in general with seeing how policymakers will answer the adjustment of the economic outlook and permits the policymaker to focus on the lower for longer rate policies. The intermediate targets and last objective of the central bank are additionally affected by Forward guidance as it permits to imparting of the data to people in general.

Step by step solution

01

concept Introduction

The central bank makes strategy connected with the economic development and security in money flow on the lookout, hence Forward guidance is central bank correspondence about its monetary standpoint and policy plan.

02

Explanation

Forward guidance assists people in general with seeing how policymakers will answer the adjustment of financial Outlook and permits the policymaker to focus on the lower for longer rate strategies. In any case, for the overall population, it is vital to comprehend what central banks will make in the following strides for this the forward guidance strategy is acquainted with mindful general society for the data in regards to the progressions in the approach. This forward guidance impacts the arrangement instruments of the central bank it assists with cutting in the strategy rate with Forward guidance a financial approach device that comprises of giving data to general society about the reasonable way of future approach rates. The middle-of-the-road targets and last objectives of the central bank are likewise affected by Forward guidance as it permits to share the data to the public that what stages a bank will take to roll out the improvements in the approach which will be relevant in adjacent future. So it is essential to make even strategy changes so general society can get the right data with the assistance of Forward guidance.

03

Final Answer

The intermediate targets and last objective of the central bank are additionally affected by Forward guidance as it permits to imparting of the data to people in general.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

. Go to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find data on the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCECTPI), real GDP (GDPC1), an estimate of potential GDP (GDPPOT), and the federal funds rate (DFF). For the price index, adjust the units setting to “Percent Change From Year Ago” to convert the data to the inflation rate; for the federal funds rate, change the frequency setting to “Quarterly.” Download the data into a spreadsheet. Assuming the inflation target is 2% and the equilibrium real fed funds rate is 2%, calculate the inflation gap and the output gap for each quarter, from 2000 until the most recent quarter of data available. Calculate the output gap as the percentage deviation of output from the potential level of output.

a. Use the output and inflation gaps to calculate, for each quarter, the fed funds rate predicted by the Taylor rule. Assume that the weights on inflation stabilization and output stabilization are both ½ (see the formula in the chapter). Compare the current (quarterly average) federal funds rate to the federal funds rate prescribed by the Taylor rule. Does the Taylor rule accurately predict the current rate? Briefly comment.

b. Create a graph that compares the predicted Taylor rule values with the actual quarterly federal funds rate averages. How well, in general, does the Taylor rule prediction fit the average federal funds rate? Briefly explain.

c. Based on the results from the 2008–2009 period, explain the limitations of the Taylor rule as a formal policy tool. How do these limitations help explain the use of nonconventional monetary policy during this period?

d. Suppose Congress changes the Fed’s mandate to a hierarchical one in which inflation stabilization takes priority over output stabilization. In this context, recalculate the predicted Taylor rule value for each quarter since 2000, assuming that the weight on inflation stabilization is ¾ and the weight on output stabilization is ¼. Create a graph showing the Taylor rule prediction calculated in part (a), the prediction using the new “hierarchical” Taylor rule, and the fed funds rate. How, if at all, does changing the mandate change the predicted policy paths? How would the fed funds rate be affected by a hierarchical mandate? Briefly explain.

e. Assume again equal weights of ½ on inflation and output stabilization, and suppose instead that beginning after the end of 2008, the equilibrium real fed funds rate declines by 0.05 each quarter (i.e. 2009:Q1 is 1.95, then 1.90, etc.), and once it reaches zero, it remains at zero thereafter. How does it affect the prescribed fed funds rate? Why might this be important for policymakers to take into consideration?

Classify each of the following as either a policy instrument or an intermediary target. Explain your answer.

a. Long-term interest rates

b. Central bank interest rates

c. M2

d. Reserve requirements

. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets about every six weeks to assess the state of the economy and to decide what actions the central bank should take. The minutes of this meeting are released three weeks after the meeting; however, a brief press release is made available immediately after the meeting. Find the schedule of minutes and press releases under the “Meeting calendars and information” tab at http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/.

a. When was the last scheduled meeting of the FOMC? When is the next meeting?

b. Review the press release from the last meeting. What did the committee decide to do about short-term interest rates?

c. Review the most recently published meeting minutes. What areas of the economy seemed to be of most concern to the committee members?

. Since monetary policy changes made through the fed funds rate occur with a lag, policymakers are usually more concerned with adjusting policy according to changes in the forecasted or expected inflation rate, rather than the current inflation rate. In light of this, suppose that monetary policymakers employ the Taylor rule to set the fed funds rate, where the inflation gap is defined as the difference between expected inflation and the target inflation rate. Assume that the weights on both the inflation and output gaps are ½, the equilibrium real fed funds rate is 4%, the inflation rate target is 3%, and the output gap is 2%. a. If the expected inflation rate is 7%, then at what target should the fed funds rate be set according to the Taylor rule?

b. Suppose half of Fed economists forecast inflation to be 6%, and half of Fed economists forecast inflation to be 8%. If the Fed uses the average of these two forecasts as its measure of expected inflation, then at what target should the fed funds rate be set according to the Taylor rule?

c. Now suppose half of Fed economists forecast inflation to be 0%, and half forecast inflation to be 14%. If the Fed uses the average of these two forecasts as its measure of expected inflation, then at what target should the fed funds rate be set according to the Taylor rule?

d. Given your answers to parts (a)–(c) above, do you think it is a good idea for monetary policymakers to use a strict interpretation of the Taylor rule as a basis for setting policy? Why or why not?

What methods have inflation-targeting central banks used to increase communication with the public and to increase the transparency of monetary policymaking?

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