If the Indian government unexpectedly announces that it will be imposing higher tariffs on foreign goods one year from now, what will happen to the value of the Indian rupee today?

Short Answer

Expert verified

It will strengthen the Indian rupee. The announcement of tariffs will raise the rupee's estimated future exchange rate, resulting in an increase in the rupee's expected appreciation.

Step by step solution

01

Concept Introduction 

In the forex markets, currency appreciation refers to the increase in the value of one currency in comparison to another.

02

Explanation 

If India were to impose unexpectedly high tariffs on unfamiliar products, the following recommendations for the currency and the economy as a whole would be made:

  • Assuming that taxes have a positive impact on the trade balance, the value of trade currency will rise. However, there is a risk of retaliation from the country that is bringing them in.
  • Assuming that many products use imported natural substances that are currently significantly more expensive, the value of the currency will depreciate.

As a result, it will have a significant impact on the rupee.

03

Final Answer

It will strengthen the Indian rupee. The imposition of taxes will boost the rupee's typical future exchange rate, hence increasing the rupee's usual appreciation. It will cause a rise in the interest rate on rupee-denominated assets, resultingly, interest curve would shift to one side, and the rupee exchange rate would rise in parallel.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Go to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find data on the daily dollar exchange rates for the euro (DEXUSEU), British pound (DEXUSUK), and Japanese yen (DEXJPUS). Also find data on the daily three-month London Interbank Offer Rate, or LIBOR, for the United States dollar (USD3MTD156N), euro (EUR3MTD156N), British pound (GBP3MTD156N), and Japanese yen (JPY3MTD156N). LIBOR is a measure of interest rates denominated in each country’s respective currency.

a. Calculate the difference between the LIBOR rate in the United States and the LIBOR rates in the three other countries using the data from one year ago and the most recent data available.

b. Based on the changes in interest rate differentials, do you expect the dollar to depreciate or appreciate against the other currencies?

c. Report the percentage change in the exchange rates over the past year. Are the results you predicted in part (b) consistent with the actual exchange rate behavior?

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