Following a policy meeting on March 19,2009the Federal Reserve made an announcement that it would purchase up to $300billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the following six months. What effect might this policy have on the yield curve?

Short Answer

Expert verified

As the yield curve became less steep, the interest rate on long-term Treasury securities fell.

Step by step solution

01

Definition

The yield curve shows the relationship between various interest rates and the period of maturity of bonds having the rest of the terms of the contract the same. The yield curve can be slanted upwards, flat, or downwards.

02

Explanation

Suppose the federal reserve decides to purchase up to $300billion long-term Treasury securities over the following six months. As a result, the supply of government securities decreases, as seen below:

The supply of treasury securities decreases, shifting ST to ST' as shown. This changed the equilibrium in the market for Treasury securities from point A to point B and increased the price to P'. Remember that an asset's price and interest rate are inversely connected. This means that the interest rate for these longer-term securities has fallen as a result of the federal reserve's decision.

This would cause the yield curve to be less steep because the interest on longer-term Treasury securities fell. This change is illustrated below.

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If bond investors decide that 30-year bonds are no longer as desirable an investment as they were previously, predict what will happen to the yield curve, assuming (a) the expectations theory of the term structure holds, and (b) the segmented markets theory of the term structure holds.

Go to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find daily yield data on the following U.S. treasuries securities: one-month (DGS1MO), three-month (DGS3MO), six-month (DGS6MO), one-year (DGS1), two-year (DGS2), three-year (DGS3), five-year (DGS5), seven-year (DGS7), 10-year (DGS10), 20-year (DGS20), and 30-year (DGS30). Download the last full year of data available into a spreadsheet.

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b. Determine the date of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee policy statement. Construct yield curves for both the day before the policy statement was released and the day on which the policy statement was released. Was there any significant change in the yield curve as a result of the policy statement? How might this be explained?

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