Assuming the expectations theory is the correct theory of the term structure, calculate the interest rates in the term structure for maturities of one to four years, and plot the resulting yield curves for the following paths of one-year interest rates over the next four years:

a. 5%;7%;12%;12%

b.7%;5%;3%;5%

How would your yield curves change if people preferred shorter-term bonds to longer-term bonds?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The steepness of the yield curve along with the slope of the curve will be changed if short-term bonds are preferred over long-term bonds because of the addition of a positive liquidity premium in the interest rate.

Step by step solution

01

Formula

The interest rates in the term structure for maturities recalculated with the following equation:

int=it+iet+1+iet+2+...+iet+(n-1)n

it is today's interest rate on a one-period one, iet+1is the interest rate on a one-period bond expected for the next period, i2tis today's interest rate on the two-period bond expected for the next period, and so forth.

02

Explanation (part a) 

Using the above equation, we are able to calculate the interest rates in the term structure for maturities of one to four years as follows:

One-year=5%1=5%Two-year=5%+7%2=6%Three-year=5%+7%+12%3=8%Four-year=5%+7%+12%+12%4=9%

03

Explanation (part b) 

Interest rate for four-year maturity:

One-year=7%1=7%Two-year=7%+5%2=6%Three-year=7%+5%+3%3=5%Four-year=7%+5%+3%+5%4=5%

The interest rate is the proportion of the amount borrowed or lent that is due over a specified period of time. The steepness and slope of the yield curve will change if short-term bonds are preferred over long-term bonds due to the addition of a positive liquidity premium in the interest rates of years2,3and4.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

During 2008, the difference in yield (the yield spread) between three-month AA-rated financial commercial paper and three-month AA-rated nonfinancial commercial paper steadily increased from its usual level of close to zero, spiking to over a full percentage point at its peak in October 2008. What explains this sudden increase?

“According to the expectations theory of the term structure, it is better to invest in one-year bonds, reinvested over two years, than to invest in a two-year bond if interest rates on one-year bonds are expected to be the same in both years.” Is this statement true, false, or uncertain?

Assuming the expectations theory is the correct theory of the term structure, calculate the interest rates in the term structure for maturities of one to four years, and plot the resulting yield curves for the following paths of one-year interest rates over the next four years:

a. 4%, 6%, 11%, 15%

b. 3%, 5%, 13%, 15%

How would your yield curves change if people preferred shorter-term bonds to longer-term bonds?

Go to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find data on Moody’s Aaa corporate bond yield (AAA) and Moody’s Baa corporate bond yield (BAA). Download the data into a spreadsheet.

a. Calculate the spread (difference) between the Baa and Aaa corporate bond yields for the most recent month of data available. What does this difference represent?

b. Calculate the spread again, for the same month but one year prior, and compare the result to your answer to part (a). What do your answers say about how the risk premium has changed over the past year?

c. Identify the month of highest and lowest spreads since the beginning of the year 2000. How do these spreads compare to the most current spread data available? Interpret the results.

Predict what would happen to the risk premiums of municipal bonds if the federal government guarantees today that it will pay creditors if municipal governments default on their payments. Do you think that it will then make sense for municipal bonds to be exempt from income taxes?

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