Various survey-based measures of inflation expectations are available reflecting consumer, market, and economists" outlooks. For instance, the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is available from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve at https//www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/ real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/, while the well-known University of Michigan consumer inflation expectations survey is available at https://fred st1ouisfed org/series/MICH. Compare the most recent readings of inflation expectations of the SPF and Michigan survey to actual CPI inflation. In general, which one seems to be more accurate?

Short Answer

Expert verified

Michigan survey appears to be more accurate for the predicted inflation rate than SPF.

Step by step solution

01

Step 1. Concept of Inflation 

Inflation is defined as an increase in the quantity of money while diminishing its value. It is the process of increasing the value of products and services while lowering the value of money. It causes a drop in the purchasing power of a country's GDP.

02

Step 2. Explanation

The SPF's most recent readings of inflation expectations suggest that inflation is predicted to rise to 3 percent from 2 percent last year, whereas the Michigan poll shows that inflation is expected to be 2.7 percent rather than 3 percent.

In both cases, the actual inflation rate for the first quarter of 2018 is 1.8 percent, which is lower than the predicted inflation rate. However, given to the modest increase in inflation in the first quarter of 2018, the Michigan survey appears to be more accurate for the predicted inflation rate than SPF.

As a result, the Michigan survey appears to be more accurate.

Unlock Step-by-Step Solutions & Ace Your Exams!

  • Full Textbook Solutions

    Get detailed explanations and key concepts

  • Unlimited Al creation

    Al flashcards, explanations, exams and more...

  • Ads-free access

    To over 500 millions flashcards

  • Money-back guarantee

    We refund you if you fail your exam.

Over 30 million students worldwide already upgrade their learning with Vaia!

One App. One Place for Learning.

All the tools & learning materials you need for study success - in one app.

Get started for free

Most popular questions from this chapter

How would an unexpected change in the equilibrium real fed funds rate be an argument against using a Taylor rule for monetary policy implementation?

Go to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find data on the core PCE price index (PCEPILFE) and the spot price of a barrel of oil (WTISPLC). For both variables, convert the units setting to "Percent Change from Year Ago, " and download the data from 1960 to the most recent available data.

a. Identify periods in which oil price inflation is 80%or higher.

b. In the periods identified in part (a), how many months was oil price inflation 80% or higher? What was the average core inflation rate during each of those episodes?

c. Based on your answers to parts (a) and (b) above, what can you conclude about the credibility of more recent monetary policy compared to its credibility in the earlier periods?

Suppose an econometric model based on past data predicts a small decrease in domestic investment when the Federal Reserve increases the federal funds rate. Assume the Federal Reserve is considering an increase in the federal funds rate target to fight inflation and promote a low inflation environment that will encourage investment and economic growth.

a. Discuss the implications of the econometric model’s predictions if individuals interpret the increase in the federal funds rate target as a sign that the Fed will keep inflation at low levels in the long run.

b. What would be Lucas’s critique of this model?

Suppose two countries have identical aggregate demand curves and potential levels of output, and γis the same in both countries. Assume that in 2019 , both countries are hit with the same negative supply shock. Given the table of values below for inflation in each country, what can you say, if anything, about the credibility of each country's central bank? Explain your answer.

Robert Lucas won the Nobel Prize in economics. Go to http:/nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/ and locate the press release on Robert Lucas. What was his Nobel Prize awarded for? When was it awarded?

See all solutions

What do you think about this solution?

We value your feedback to improve our textbook solutions.

Study anywhere. Anytime. Across all devices.

Sign-up for free