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Chapter 4: Problem 11

Why will a youthful population still be growing in size even after it has reached replacement fertility?

Short Answer

Expert verified
In conclusion, a youthful population will continue to grow in size even after it has reached replacement fertility due to two main factors: population momentum and lower mortality rates. The large base of young people entering childbearing years will still contribute to high absolute numbers of births, and improved healthcare and living conditions lead to longer life expectancy, which prolongs population growth. These factors together contribute to the continued growth of a youthful population even after achieving replacement fertility.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Replacement Fertility

Replacement fertility is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next. In other words, each set of parents has just enough children on average to replace themselves (taking into account factors such as mortality rates). A population with replacement fertility is not shrinking, but it may not be growing substantially either. In developed countries, replacement fertility is often considered to be 2.1 children per woman, to account for girls who do not survive to childbearing age and other factors.
02

Examining the Youthful Population

A youthful population is a population with a high proportion of young people, typically children and adolescents, within its demographic structure. It implies that there have been high birth rates in recent years, leading to a bulge in the age structure. The population has a significant potential for growth, as most of these young people will eventually enter their childbearing years and contribute to population growth through having children.
03

Population Momentum

Population momentum is a demographic phenomenon that causes populations to continue growing, even after fertility rates have declined to replacement levels. When a society transitions from high fertility rates to replacement fertility, the youthful segment of the population will still grow and expand, because there is a larger base of people entering childbearing age. This means that the overall number of children born will still be relatively high, even if each woman is having, on average, the same number of children as her mother.
04

The Effect of Lower Mortality Rates

Another factor that contributes to the growth of a population, even after achieving replacement fertility, is lower mortality rates. Improved healthcare and living conditions lead to longer life expectancy, which means that people are living longer and contributing to population growth for a more extended period. With increased life expectancy and continuous births in the population, the size of the population will keep growing even if fertility rates have reached replacement levels.
05

Conclusion

In summary, even after a youthful population has reached replacement fertility, it will continue to grow in size due to two main factors: population momentum and lower mortality rates. As the large, youthful population base enters their childbearing years, they will continue to have children, and with improved healthcare and living conditions, individuals will live longer. These factors together contribute to the continued growth of a youthful population even after achieving replacement fertility.

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