A woman has n keys, of which one will open her door.

(a) If she tries the keys at random, discarding those that do not work, what is the probability that she will open the door on her kth try?

(b) What if she does not discard previously tried keys?

Short Answer

Expert verified

a). The probability she will open the door on her kth try is1n.

b). The probability she does not discard previously tried keys is 1n1-1nk-1.

Step by step solution

01

Part (a) Step 1: Given Information

A woman has n keys, of which one will open her door.

02

Part (a) Step 2: Explanation

Trying keys and discarding them ( n keys):

Outcome space: S=x1,x2,xn;some permutation of keys

Each element of the outcome space is equally likely.

The probability that the key is i-th in the permutation is the number of permutations with fixed i-th place, and that is (n-1)! divided by the number of permutations n!

P(correct key isi-th)=(n-1)!n!=1n
03

Part (b) Step 1: Given Information

A woman has n keys, of which one will open her door.

04

Part (b) Step 2: Explanation

b) Trying keys and returning them them ( nkeys)

Each element of the outcome space is equally likely.

The probability that the key is i-th in the vector is the number of vectors where the first n-1 elements are some of the n-1 keys that are not correct and the last key is the correct one, and that is (n-1)k-1 divided by the number of elements in the outcome space nk

P(correct key isi-th)=(n-1)k-1nk=1n1-1nk-1

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