8.7. The servicing of a machine requires two separate steps, with the time needed for the first step being an exponential random variable with mean .2hour and the time for the second step being an independent exponential random variable with mean .3hour. If a repair person has 20machines to service, approximate the probability that all the work can be completed in 8 hours.

Short Answer

Expert verified

The probability is .1075.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

An exponential random variable with mean .2hour and an independent exponential random variable with mean .3 hour.

02

Explanation

Let X1,jrepresents the time (in hours) needed for first step of servicing jth machine and X2,krepresents the time (also in hours) needed for second step of servicing kth machine. The two random variables are independent, the variable X1,jis an exponential random variable with parameterλ1with mean.
μ1=EX1,j=1λ1=.2
Then, the variable X2,kis an exponential random variable with parameterλ2 with mean:
μ2=EX2,k=1λ2=.3
Finally,
λ1=1.2,λ2=1.3
Hence, the appropriate variances are:
σ12=VarX1,j=1λ12=.04σ22=VarX2,k=1λ22=.09

03

Explanation

A repair person has 20machines to service and let Ydenote the total time of servicing ith machine,i=1,2,,20. Then,Yi=X1,i+X2,i
and the total time of finishing all the work is,
Y=i=120Yi=i=120X1,i+X2,i
The probability that all the work can be completed in 8 hours is:
P{Y8}
Since,X1,1+X2,1,X2,1+X2,2,,X1,20+X2,20is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, each with mean
μ=EX1,i+X2,i=μ1+μ2=.5
The variance is,
σ2=VarX1,i+X2,i=σ12+σ22=.13

04

Probability calculation

Using The central limit theorem:
P{Y8}=PY20μσ2820μσ2Φ820μσ20=Φ820(.5)20(.13)=Φ(1.24)=1Φ(1.24)=1-.8925=.1075

Hence, the probability is .1075.

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