The table below includes results from polygraph (lie detector) experiments conducted by researchers Charles R. Honts (Boise State University) and Gordon H. Barland (Department of Defense Polygraph Institute). In each case, it was known if the subject lied or did not lie, so the table indicates when the polygraph test was correct. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that whether a subject lies is independent of the polygraph test indication. Do the results suggest that polygraphs are effective in distinguishing between truths and lies?

Did the subject Actually Lie?


No (Did Not Lie)

Yes (Lied)

Polygraph test indicates that the subject lied.


15

42

Polygraph test indicates that the subject did not lied.


32

9

Short Answer

Expert verified

A polygraph test is effective in distinguishing truth and lies.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

The data forthe polygraph test is provided.

The level of significance is 0.05.

02

Compute the expected frequencies and check the requirements

Theexpected frequency is computed as,

\(E = \frac{{\left( {row\;total} \right)\left( {column\;total} \right)}}{{\left( {grand\;total} \right)}}\)

The table of observed values with row and column total is represented as,


Did the subject Actually Lie?



No (Did Not Lie)

Yes (Lied)

Row total

Polygraph test indicates that the subject lied.

15

42

57

Polygraph test indicates that the subject did not lie.

32

9

41

Column total

47

51

98

Theexpected frequency tableis represented as,


Did the subject Actually Lie?


No (Did Not Lie)

Yes (Lied)

Polygraph test indicates that the subject lied.

27.3367

29.6633

Polygraph test indicates that the subject did not lie.

19.6633

21.3367

Assume that the subjects are randomly selected and assigned to treatment groups. Also, the expected values are greater than 5.

Thus, all the requirements are satisfied.

03

State the hypotheses

To test if the true results are independent of the results obtained from the polygraph, the hypotheses are formulated as:

\({H_0}:\)Thesubject’s lie is independent of the polygraph test indication.

\({H_1}:\) The subject’s lie is not independent of the polygraph test indication.

04

Compute the test statistic

The value of the test statisticis computed as,

\[\begin{aligned}{c}{\chi ^2} = \sum {\frac{{{{\left( {O - E} \right)}^2}}}{E}} \\ = \frac{{{{\left( {15 - 27.3367} \right)}^2}}}{{27.3367}} + \frac{{{{\left( {42 - 29.6633} \right)}^2}}}{{29.6633}} + ... + \frac{{{{\left( {9 - 21.3367} \right)}^2}}}{{21.3367}}\\ = 25.571\end{aligned}\]

Therefore, the value of the test statistic is 25.571.

05

Compute the degrees of freedom

The degrees of freedomwith total number of rows (r) and columns (c)are computed as,

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\left( {r - 1} \right)\left( {c - 1} \right) = \left( {2 - 1} \right)\left( {2 - 1} \right)\\ = 1\end{aligned}\)

Therefore, the degrees of freedom are 1.

06

Compute the P-value

From chi-square table, the P-value for row corresponding to 1 degree of freedom and at 0.05 level of significance is 0.000.

Therefore, the P-value is 0.000.

Also, the critical value is obtained at 0.05 level of significance as 3.841.

07

State the decision

Since the P-value (0.000) is less than the level of significance (0.05). In this case, the null hypothesis is rejected.

Therefore, the decision is to reject the null hypothesis.

08

State the conclusion

There is enough evidence to reject the claim that the true results for lies are independent of polygraph test results. Thus, polygraphs appear to detect the lies effectively.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Chocolate and Happiness In a survey sponsored by the Lindt chocolate company, 1708 women were surveyed and 85% of them said that chocolate made them happier.

a. Is there anything potentially wrong with this survey?

b. Of the 1708 women surveyed, what is the number of them who said that chocolate made them happier?

Weather-Related Deaths For a recent year, the numbers of weather-related U.S. deaths for each month were 28, 17, 12, 24, 88, 61, 104, 32, 20, 13, 26, 25 (listed in order beginning with January). Use a 0.01 significance level to test the claim that weather-related deaths occur in the different months with the same frequency. Provide an explanation for the result.

In his book Outliers,author Malcolm Gladwell argues that more

American-born baseball players have birth dates in the months immediately following July 31 because that was the age cutoff date for nonschool baseball leagues. The table below lists months of births for a sample of American-born baseball players and foreign-born baseball players. Using a 0.05 significance level, is there sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the claim that months of births of baseball players are independent of whether they are born in America? Do the data appear to support Gladwell’s claim?


Born in America

Foreign Born

Jan.

387

101

Feb.

329

82

March

366

85

April

344

82

May

336

94

June

313

83

July

313

59

Aug.

503

91

Sept.

421

70

Oct.

434

100

Nov.

398

103

Dec.

371

82

Is the hypothesis test described in Exercise 1 right tailed, left-tailed, or two-tailed? Explain your choice.

The accompanying table is from a study conducted

with the stated objective of addressing cell phone safety by understanding why we use a particular ear for cell phone use. (See “Hemispheric Dominance and Cell Phone Use,” by Seidman, Siegel, Shah, and Bowyer, JAMA Otolaryngology—Head & Neck Surgery,Vol. 139, No. 5.)

The goal was to determine whether the ear choice is associated with auditory or language brain hemispheric dominance. Assume that we want to test the claim that handedness and cell phone ear preference are independent of each other.

a. Use the data in the table to find the expected value for the cell that has an observed frequency of 3. Round the result to three decimal places.

b. What does the expected value indicate about the requirements for the hypothesis test?

Right Ear

Left Ear

No Preference

Right-Handed

436

166

40

Left-Handed

16

50

3

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