assume that 100 cars are randomly selected. Refer to the accompanying graph, which shows the top car colors and the percentages of cars with those colors (based on PPG Industries).

Red Cars: Find the probability of exactly 14 red cars. Why can’t the result be used to determine whether 14 is a significantly high number of red cars?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The probability that the number of red cars is 14 is 0.0542.

The result does not give the value of probability for at least getting 14 red cars, thus cannot be used to determine a significantly high value 14.

Step by step solution

01

Given Information

There are 100 randomly selected cars. There are five types of colors in the sample of cars such as white, black, gray, silver, and red.

02

Normal approximation to binomial distribution

Requirements for normal approximation of binomial distribution:

The sample is a simple random sample with size n from the population with the proportion of success p or probability of success p.\(np \ge 5,nq \ge 5.\)

03

Verify the requirements

Let X be the random variable for the number black cars in sample of 100.

The proportion of cars with red color is 0.10(p).

The sample size and probability of success are;

\(\begin{aligned}{l}n = 100\\p = 0.10\end{aligned}\)

The requirement for the normal approximation to binomial distribution, that is, \(np \ge 5,nq \ge 5.\)

Thus,

\(\begin{aligned}{c}np = 100 \times 0.10\\ = 10\\ = 10\\ \ge 5\end{aligned}\)

\(\begin{aligned}{c}nq = n \times \left( {1 - p} \right)\\ = 100 \times \left( {1 - 0.10} \right)\\ = 90\\ \ge 5\end{aligned}\)

Thus, the approximation to normal distribution is verified.

04

Find mean and standard deviation for normal distribution

To approximate binomial distribution into normal, it is important to find the mean and standard deviation.

Hence, the formula for mean and standard deviation is given below,

\(\begin{aligned}{l}\mu = n \times p\\\sigma = \sqrt {n \times p \times q} \end{aligned}\)

Now, Substitute the all values in the formula,

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\mu = n \times p\\ = 100 \times 0.10\\ = 10\end{aligned}\)

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\sigma = \sqrt {n \times p \times q} \\ = \sqrt {100 \times 0.10 \times 0.90} \\ = 3\end{aligned}\)

Now, the mean of the normal distribution is \(\mu = 10\) and the standard deviation of normal distribution is \(\sigma = 3\).

05

Continuity correction

The probability that the number of cars is equal to 14 is expressed as,

\(\begin{aligned}{c}P\left( {X = 14} \right) = P\left( {13.5 < X < 14.5} \right)\\ = P\left( {X < 14.5} \right) - P\left( {X < 13.5} \right)\end{aligned}\)

The formula for z-score is,

\(z = \frac{{x - \mu }}{\sigma }\)

The z-score associated each value are,

\(\begin{aligned}{c}{z_1} = \frac{{{x_1} - \mu }}{\sigma }\\ = \frac{{13.5 - 10}}{3}\\ = 1.1667\end{aligned}\)

\(\begin{aligned}{c}{z_2} = \frac{{{x_2} - \mu }}{\sigma }\\ = \frac{{14.5 - 10}}{3}\\ = 1.5\end{aligned}\)

From the standard normal table,

the cumulative probability for the value 1.16 is 0.8790.

the cumulative probability for the value 1.50 is 0.9332.

Thus, probability that the number of red cars is 14,

\(\begin{aligned}{c}P\left( {X = 14} \right) = P\left( {1.16 < Z < 1.50} \right)\\ = P\left( {Z < 1.50} \right) - P\left( {Z < 1.16} \right)\\ = 0.9332 - 0.8790\\ = 0.0542\end{aligned}\)

Thus, the probability that the number of red cars is 14 is 0.0542.

06

Define significantly high

Significantly high events are those which have a probability 0.05 or less for the occurrence of events greater than or equal to the given event.

Here, the probability is stated for 14 red cars and not at least 14 cars.

Thus, if 14 red cars is significantly high number or not cannot be determined using the results.

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