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Chapter 4: Q5 (page 178)

Subjective Probability Estimate the probability that the next time you ride in a car, the car gets a flat tire.

Short Answer

Expert verified

The estimated probability value that the car gets a flat tire the next time you ride in it is equal to 0.001.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

It is required to estimate the probability that the car gets a flat tire the next time you ride in it.

02

Subjective probability 

Subjective probability refers to estimating the probability value of an event using past experiences. It is purely based on one’s opinion and is not obtained from any experimental/actual data.

The probability value estimated using subjective judgement can vary from person to person.

Now, the event considered is the occurrence of a flat tire the next time you rides a car.

Based on general experience, the number of times the car gets a flat tire is extremely small as compared to the number of times the car is driven.

It can be said that out of 1,000 rides, the car is likely to get a flat tire only once or twice.

Therefore, using subjective judgement, the estimated probability value that the car gets a flat tire the next time you ride it is equal to 1/1000 or 0.001.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In Exercises 9–20, use the data in the following table, which lists drive-thru order accuracy at popular fast food chains (data from a QSR Drive-Thru Study). Assume that orders are randomly selected from those included in the table.

McDonald’s

Burger King

Wendy’s

Taco Bell

Order Accurate

329

264

249

145

OrderNotAccurate

33

54

31

13

Fast Food Drive-Thru Accuracy If three different orders are selected, find the probability that they are all from Wendy’s

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b. Repeat Exercise 11 “Fast Food Drive-Thru Accuracy” using the exclusive or instead of the inclusive or.

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