11.91 Economic Stimulus. In a national poll, 1053 U.S. adults were asked, "As you may know, Congress is considering a new economic stimulus package of at least 800 billion dollars. Do you favor or oppose Congress passing this legislation?" Of those sampled, 548 favored passage.
a. At the 5% significance level, do the data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that a majority (more than 50% ) of U.S. adults favored passage?
b. The headline on the website featuring the survey read, "In U.S., Slim Majority Supports Economic Stimulus Plan." In view of your result from part (a), discuss why the headline might be misleading.
c. How could the headline be made more precise?

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) At the 5% level, the test results are not statistically significant. The data does not support the conclusion that the majority of Americans approved passage.
(b) At the 5%significance level, from part (a). "In the United States, a Slender Majority Supports Economic Stimulus Plan," So, cannot conclude.
(c) "Slim Majority (50%) of Respondents Supports Economic Stimulus Plan,"

Step by step solution

01

Part (a) Step 1: Given information

To find the data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that majority of U.S favored passages at the 5%significance level.

02

Part (a) Step 2: Explanation

Let, the significance level is 5%,n=1053,p0=0.5and x=548.
Determine the value of np0.
np0=(1053)(0.5)

=526.5

The values np0and n(1-p0)are both greater than 5.

As a result, only one proportion ztest should be used.

The null hypothesis: H0:p0=0.5

The alternate hypothesis: Ha:p0>0.5

03

Part (a) Step 3: Explanation

Determine the sample proportion as:
p^=xn
=5481053
=0.5204
For z, define the expression.
z=p^-p0p01-p0n
=0.52040.50.5(10.5)1053
=0.02040.0154
=1.324
Also,
α=0.05
The test is left tailed.

04

Part (a) Step 4: Explanation

The crucial value of zfrom the usual table for α=0.05 is,
z0.05=-1.645
The test statistic is within acceptable bounds.
As a result, the hypothesis H0 is not rejected.
At the 5% level, the test results are not statistically significant.
As a result, the data does not support the conclusion that the majority of Americans approved passage.

05

Part (b) Step 1: Given information

The headline on the website featuring the survey read, "In U.S., Slim Majority Supports Economic Stimulus Plan."

06

Part (b) Step 2: Explanation

Since, the headline is "In U.S Slim Majority Supports Economic Stimulus Plan."
In the United States, a slim majority of people support the economic stimulus plan.
The test statistic is within acceptable bounds.
As a result, the hypothesis H0 is not ruled out.
At the 5% level, the test result is not statistically significant.
As a result, it is impossible to conclude that more than 50%of US adults favored law approval.
As a result, the rationale for the misleading headline is stated above.

07

Part (c) Step 1: Given information

To find that the headline be made more precise.

08

Part (c) Step 2: Explanation

"In the United States, a Slender Majority Supports Economic Stimulus Plan," the headline reads.
In the United States, a slim majority of people support the economic stimulus plan.
When more than 50% of US people approved passage of the Act, a more accurate headline could be used.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In discussing the sample size required for obtaining a confidence interval with a prescribed confidence level and margin of error, we made the following statement: "If we have in mind a likely range for the observed value of p^, then, in light of Fig. 11.1, we should take as our educated guess for p^the value in the range closest to 0.5"Explain why.

Body Mass Index. Body mass index (BMI) is a measure of body fit based on height and weight. According to the document Dietary Guidelines for Americans, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, for adults, a BMI of greater than 25 indicates an above healthy weight (i.e., overweight or obese), Oct 750 randomly selected adults whose highest degree is a bachelor's, 386 have an above healthy weight; and of 500 randomly selected adults with a graduate degree, 237 have an above healthy weight.

a. What assumptions are required for using the two-proportions z-lest here?

b. Apply the two-proportions z-test to determine, at the 5% significance level, whether the percentage of adults who have an above healthy weight is greater for those whose highest degree is a bachelor's than for those with a graduate degree.

Obtain a sample size that will ensure a margin of error of at most the one specified.

Margin of error=0.02

Confidence level=95%

What does the margin of error for the estimate of a population proportion tell you?

Suppose that you can make reasonably good educated guesses, p^1gand p^2g, for the observed values of p^1and p^2.

a. Use your result from Exercise 11.132to show that a (1-α)-level confidence interval for the difference between two population proportions that has an approximate margin of error of Ecan be obtained by choosing

n1=n2=p^1g1-p^1g+p^2g1-p^2gza/2E2

rounded up to the nearest whole number. Note: If you know likely ranges instead of exact educated guesses for the observed values of the two sample proportions, use the values in the ranges closest to 0.5as the educated guesses.

b. Explain why the formula in part (a) yields smaller (or at worst the same) sample sizes than the formula in Exercise 11.133.

c. When reasonably good educated guesses for the observed values of p^1and p^2can be made, explain why choosing the sample sizes by using the formula in part (a) is preferable to choosing them by using the formula in Exercise 11.133.

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