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Chapter 12: Q112E (page 781)

Question: There are six independent variables, x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, and x6, that might be useful in predicting a response y. A total of n = 50 observations is available, and it is decided to employ stepwise regression to help in selecting the independent variables that appear to be useful. The software fits all possible one-variable models of the form

where xi is the ith independent variable, i = 1, 2, …, 6. The information in the table is provided from the computer printout.

E(Y)=β0+β1xi

a. Which independent variable is declared the best one variable predictor of y? Explain.

b. Would this variable be included in the model at this stage? Explain.

c. Describe the next phase that a stepwise procedure would execute.

Short Answer

Expert verified

Answer

a. For x1, the t-value is the highest (3.80), x1 is the best one variable predictor of y.

b. Since x1 is the best one-variable predictor of y, the variable will be included in the model at this stage.

c. The stepwise program now begins to search through the remaining (k – 1) independent variables for the best two-variable model of the form. Therefore, here the program begins searching remaining 5 independent variables for the best two-variable model.

Step by step solution

01

One-variable best predictor

T-test values for testing of single β parameter isβi^sβi^

Here for x1, x2,x3,x4,x5,and x6t-values are 3.80, -90, 2.98, 1.21, -6.02, and 0.857 respectively. Since for x1, the t-value is the highest, x1 is the best one variable predictor of y.

02

Stepwise procedure

Since x1 is the best one-variable predictor of y, the variable will be included in the model at this stage.

03

Stepwise procedure

The stepwise program now begins to search through the remaining (k – 1) independent variables for the best two-variable model of the form. Therefore, here the program begins searching remaining 5 independent variables for the best two-variable model.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Consider fitting the multiple regression model

E(y)= β0+β1x1+ β2x2+β3x3+ β4x4 +β5x5

A matrix of correlations for all pairs of independent variables is given below. Do you detect a multicollinearity problem? Explain

Forecasting movie revenues with Twitter. Refer to the IEEE International Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology (2010) study on using the volume of chatter on Twitter.com to forecast movie box office revenue, Exercise 12.10 (p. 723). The researchers modelled a movie’s opening weekend box office revenue (y) as a function of tweet rate (x1 ) and ratio of positive to negative tweets (x2) using a first-order model.

a) Write the equation of an interaction model for E(y) as a function of x1 and x2 .

b) In terms of theβ in the model, part a, what is the change in revenue (y) for every 1-tweet increase in the tweet rate (x1 ) , holding PN-ratio (x2)constant at a value of 2.5?

c) In terms of the in the model, part a, what is the change in revenue (y) for every 1-tweet increase in the tweet rate (x1 ) , holding PN-ratio (x2)constant at a value of 5.0?

d) In terms of theβ in the model, part a, what is the change in revenue (y) for every 1-unit increase in the PN-ratio (x2) , holding tweet rate (x1 )constant at a value of 100?

e) Give the null hypothesis for testing whether tweet rate (x1 ) and PN-ratio (x2) interact to affect revenue (y).

Question: Reality TV and cosmetic surgery. Refer to the Body Image: An International Journal of Research (March 2010) study of the impact of reality TV shows on one’s desire to undergo cosmetic surgery, Exercise 12.17 (p. 725). Recall that psychologists used multiple regression to model desire to have cosmetic surgery (y) as a function of gender(x1) , self-esteem(x2) , body satisfaction(x3) , and impression of reality TV (x4). The SPSS printout below shows a confidence interval for E(y) for each of the first five students in the study.

  1. Interpret the confidence interval for E(y) for student 1.
  2. Interpret the confidence interval for E(y) for student 4

Question: Bus Rapid Transit study. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) is a rapidly growing trend in the provision of public transportation in America. The Center for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR) at the University of South Florida conducted a survey of BRT customers in Miami (Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, January 2003). Data on the following variables (all measured on a 5-point scale, where 1 = very unsatisfied and 5 = very satisfied) were collected for a sample of over 500 bus riders: overall satisfaction with BRT (y), safety on bus (x1), seat availability (x2), dependability (x3), travel time (x4), cost (x5), information/maps (x6), convenience of routes (x7), traffic signals (x8), safety at bus stops (x9), hours of service (x10), and frequency of service (x11). CUTR analysts used stepwise regression to model overall satisfaction (y).

a. How many models are fit at step 1 of the stepwise regression?

b. How many models are fit at step 2 of the stepwise regression?

c. How many models are fit at step 11 of the stepwise regression?

d. The stepwise regression selected the following eight variables to include in the model (in order of selection): x11, x4, x2, x7, x10, x1, x9, and x3. Write the equation for E(y) that results from stepwise regression.

e. The model, part d, resulted in R2 = 0.677. Interpret this value.

f. Explain why the CUTR analysts should be cautious in concluding that the best model for E(y) has been found.

Question: Novelty of a vacation destination. Many tourists choose a vacation destination based on the newness or uniqueness (i.e., the novelty) of the itinerary. The relationship between novelty and vacationing golfers’ demographics was investigated in the Annals of Tourism Research (Vol. 29, 2002). Data were obtained from a mail survey of 393 golf vacationers to a large coastal resort in the south-eastern United States. Several measures of novelty level (on a numerical scale) were obtained for each vacationer, including “change from routine,” “thrill,” “boredom-alleviation,” and “surprise.” The researcher employed four independent variables in a regression model to predict each of the novelty measures. The independent variables were x1 = number of rounds of golf per year, x2 = total number of golf vacations taken, x3 = number of years played golf, and x4 = average golf score.

  1. Give the hypothesized equation of a first-order model for y = change from routine.
  1. A test of H0: β3 = 0 versus Ha: β3< 0 yielded a p-value of .005. Interpret this result if α = .01.
  1. The estimate of β3 was found to be negative. Based on this result (and the result of part b), the researcher concluded that “those who have played golf for more years are less apt to seek change from their normal routine in their golf vacations.” Do you agree with this statement? Explain.
  1. The regression results for three dependent novelty measures, based on data collected for n = 393 golf vacationers, are summarized in the table below. Give the null hypothesis for testing the overall adequacy of the first-order regression model.
  1. Give the rejection region for the test, part d, for α = .01.
  1. Use the test statistics reported in the table and the rejection region from part e to conduct the test for each of the dependent measures of novelty.
  1. Verify that the p-values reported in the table support your conclusions in part f.
  1. Interpret the values of R2 reported in the table.
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