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Chapter 3: Q121SE (page 207)

Chance of an Avon sale.The probability that an Avon salesperson sells beauty products to a prospective customer on the first visit to the customer is .4. If the salesperson fails to make the sale on the first visit, the probability that the sale will be made on the second visit is .65. The salesperson never visits a prospective customer more than twice. What is the probability that the salesperson will make a sale to a particular customer?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The probability that the salesperson will make a sale to a particular customer is 0.79.

Step by step solution

01

Important formula

The formula for probability isP=FavourableoutcomesTotaloutcomes

02

Find the probability that the salesperson will make a sale to a particular customer

Here, the probability that an Avon salesperson sells beauty products to a prospective customer on the first visit to the customer is=P(S)=0.4

If the distributor does not sell upon that second appointment P(D|SC)=0.65.

Now,

P(SC)=1−0.4=0.6

Now, the required probability is:

P(T)=P(S)+P(SC).P(D|SC)=0.4+(0.6)(0.65)=0.79

Therefore, the probability that the salesperson will make a sale to a particular customer is 0.79.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Workers’ unscheduled absence survey. Each year CCH, Inc., a firm that provides human resources and employment law information, conducts a survey on absenteeism in the workplace. The latest CCH Unscheduled Absence Surveyfound that of all unscheduled work absences, 34% are due to “personal illness,” 22% for “family issues,” 18% for “personal needs,” 13% for “entitlement mentality,” and 13% due to “stress.” Consider a randomly selected employee who has an unscheduled work absence.

a. List the sample points for this experiment.

b. Assign reasonable probabilities to the sample points.

c. What is the probability that the absence is due to something other than “personal illness”?

Ownership of small businesses. According to the Journal of Business Venturing (Vol. 17, 2002), 27% of all small businesses owned by non-Hispanic whites nationwide are women-owned firms. If we select, at random, a small business owned by a non-Hispanic white, what is the probability that it is a male-owned firm?

Performance-based logistics. Refer to the Journal of Business Logistics (Vol. 36, 2015) study of performance-based logistics (PBL) strategies, Exercise 1.15 (p. 49). Recall that the study was based on the opinions of a sample of 17 upper-level employees of the U.S. Department of Defense and its suppliers. The current position (e.g., vice president, manager), type of organization (commercial or government), and years of experience for each team member interviewed are listed below. Suppose we randomly select one of these interviewees for more in-depth questioning on PBL strategies.

a. What is the probability that the interviewee works for a government organization?

b. What is the probability that the interviewee has at least 20 years of experience?

Interviewee

Position

Organization

Experience (years)

1

Vice president

Commercial

30

2

Postproduction

Government

15

3

Analyst

Commercial

10

4

Senior manager (mgr.)

Government

30

5

Support chief

Government

30

6

Specialist

Government

25

7

Senior analyst

Commercial

9

8

Division chief

Government

6

9

Item mgr.

Government

3

10

Senior mgr.

Government

20

11

MRO mgr.

Government

25

12

Logistics mgr.

Government

30

13

MRO mgr.

Commercial

10

14

MRO mgr.

Commercial

5

15

MRO mgr.

Commercial

10

16

Specialist

Government

20

17

Chief

Government

25

Museum management. Refer to the Museum Management and Curatorship (June 2010) study of the criteria used to evaluate museum performance, Exercise 2.14 (p. 74). Recall that the managers of 30 leading museums of contemporary art were asked to provide the performance measure used most often. A summary of the results is reproduced in the table. Performance Measure Number of Museums Total visitors 8 Paying visitors 5 Big shows 6 Funds raised 7 Members 4


Performance Measure

Number of Museums

Total visitors

8

Paying visitors

5

Big shows

6

Funds raised

7

Members

4

a. If one of the 30 museums is selected at random, what is the probability that the museum uses total visitors or funds raised most often as a performance measure?

b. Consider two museums of contemporary art randomly selected from all such museums. Of interest is whether or not the museums use total visitors or funds raised most often as a performance measure. Use a tree diagram to aid in listing the sample points for this problem.

c. Assign reasonable probabilities to the sample points of part b.

d. Refer to parts b and c. Find the probability that both museums use total visitors or funds raised most often as a performance measure.

Who prepares your tax return? As part of a study on income tax compliance (Behavioral Research and Accounting, January 2015), researchers sampled 270 adults at a shopping mall and asked each: “Who usually prepares your tax return?” Their answers (and frequency of responses) are shown in the table (p. 170). Use the information in the table to estimate the probability that a randomly selected adult uses a friend, relative, or professional to prepare his or her income tax return.

Table for Exercise 3.16

Response

Frequency

You

100

Your spouse

16

Equally with spouse

7

Friend or relative

31

Professional help

114

Not required to file

2

TOTAL

270

Source: S. Bhattacharjee, K. Moreno, and D. Salbador, “The Impact of Multiple Tax Returns on Tax Compliance Behavior,” Behavioral Research and Accounting, Vol. 27, No. 1, January 2015 (from Table 1).
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