Risk of a natural gas pipeline accident. Process Safety Progress (December 2004) published a risk analysis for a natural gas pipeline between Bolivia and Brazil. The most likely scenario for an accident would be natural gas leakage from a hole in the pipeline. The probability that the leak ignites immediately (causing a jet fire) is .01. If the leak does not immediately ignite, it may result in a delayed ignition of a gas cloud. Given no immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition (causing a flash fire) is .01. If there is no ignition, the gas cloud will harmlessly disperse. Suppose a leak occurs in the natural gas pipeline. Find the probability that either a jet or flash fire will occur. Illustrate with a tree diagram.

Step by step solution

01

Given information and definitions

P (jet fire) = 0.01

P (no jet fire) = 1-0.01 = 0.99

02

The final result and tree diagram

Use the multiplication rule, then

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {{\rm{flash fire}}} \right) &= {\bf{ }}P\left( {{\rm{jet fire}}} \right) \times P\left( {{\rm{no jet fire}}} \right)\\ &= 0.01 \times 0.99\\ &= 0.0099\end{aligned}\)

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {{\rm{jet fire or flash fire}}} \right) &= 0.01 + 0.0099\\ &= 0.0199\end{aligned}\)

Therefore, the result is\(0.0199\).

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