Suppose the events B1,B2,B3 are mutually exclusive and complementary events, such thatP(B1)=0.2, P(B2)=0.4and P(B3)=0.5. Consider another event A such thatP(AB1)=P(AB2)=0.1andP(AB3)=0.2Use Baye’s Rule to find

a.P(B1A)

b.PB2A

c.role="math" localid="1658214716845" P(B3A)

Short Answer

Expert verified

Therefore, the values of all parts are:

  1. 0.158
  2. 0.073
  3. 0.768

Step by step solution

01

Important formula

Baye’s formula is used for finding the conditional probability of the events.

The required formula is

PBiA=P(BiA)P(A)=P(Bi)P(ABi)P(B1)P(AB1)+P(B2)P(AB2)+...+P(Bk)P(ABk)

02

(a) Find the value of  P(B1A)

Here P(AB1)=P(AB2)=0.1, andP(AB3)=0.2.

Apply the baye’s formula, then

PB1A=P(B1)P(AB1)P(B1)PAB1+P(B2)P(AB2)+P(B3)P(AB3)=(0.2)(0.4)(0.2)(0.4)+(0.15)(0.25)+(0.65)(0.6)=0.158

So, the values of all parts are 0.158

03

(b) Evaluate the value of P(B2A)

PB2A=P(B2)P(AB2)P(B1)P(AB1)+P(B2)P(AB2)+P(B3)P(AB3)=(0.15)(0.25)(0.2)(0.4)+(0.15)(0.25)+(0.65)(0.6)=0.073

Hence, the values of all parts are 0.073

04

(c) Determine the value of P(B3A)

PB3A=P(B3)P(AB3)P(B1)PAB1+P(B2)PAB2+P(B3)P(AB3)=(0.65)(0.6)(0.2)(0.4)+(0.15)(0.25)+(0.65)(0.6)=0.768

Therefore, the values of all parts are 0.768

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Consider the Venn diagram below, were

P(E1)=P(E2)=P(E3)=15,P(E4)=P(E5)=120P(E6)=110,andP(E7)=15

Find each of the following probabilities:

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(Data from U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of LabourStatistics, 2014 (Table 4).

Which events are independent?Use your intuitive understanding of independence to form an opinion about whether each of the following scenarios represents independent events.

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e.The amount of gain or loss associated with investments in different stocks bought and sold in different time periods, 5 years apart.

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c. Suppose a corporation tax return is randomly selected. What is the probability that the IRS audited the return?

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